55 /120
|
| Moderate |
| 12.4nT |
| Light Activity |
|
|
| Moderate |
Reykjavík 🌩 4.2°C 
15:37 
11:03 Sun ° : 1.59°
Iceland's Northern Lights forecast for 21:00-00:00 might be better than expected, with light to moderate activity. Current Aurora conditions have exceeded their forecasts, indicating higher than anticipated solar activity. Solar wind conditions change rapidly, check the latest data here as it becomes available. Arrival of the Aurora locally is estimated at 20:30, with some visibility likely before if the Aurora is 'active' or 'very active'.
| – |
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Illumination: 65%
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||
|
Moon: 23:24 - 14:04
(Waning Gibbous) |
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⚠ The moonlight (65% illuminated) and should not interfer with the visibility of the Aurora.
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Kp
3-4
|
The current Aurora is a Kp3-4 (on a scale of 0-9) and will cover all of Iceland from 20:30. Viewed from Reykjavík, when active, the Aurora is positioned between the NNW horizon and above the city. In addition it covers the Faroe Islands and northern-mid Scandinavia. During active periods, visibility is likely to extend to the northern UK and Ireland, southern Scandinavia. Aurora Conditions in 66 minutes: The Aurora will remain at the same reach. |
|
Light Activity
|
Faint aurora activity can be observed with visible auroras in dark places. Pay attention to Kp position. Use a camera to find the aurora if not visible straight away. |
Watermelon Auroras are tri-colour Auroras with green, white/yellow and pink or red colouration. This image was taken on September 17th near Mosfellsbær. They tend to occur during strong solar wind conditions and are somewhat rare from my experience. Always a treat!
 Speed |
Density |
 IMF Bt |
IMF Bz |
| 374.9km/s | 4.37p/cm3 | 6.94nT | -3.39nT |
|
55 /120
|
| Moderate |
Moderate solar wind conditions will charge the aurora well over time, depending on length and strength of south facing Bz.
Bz conditions arriving on earth now and over the last 60 minutes have been fairly good: The Aurora Oval (Kp Maximum Reach) is expected to remain at current levels, and for energy (substorm activity) to build up over time. Monitor Kp and activity levels (magnetometer readings) for changes.
The Bz index has been negative (southward) for 100% of the last 60 minutes, averaging -3.96 nT with a minimum of -5.34 nT. Extended and strong periods of negative Bz are required to create visible Aurora displays.
 |
12.4 nT
|
Light Activity
|
 |
-13 nT
|
Inactive
|
This magnetometer section contains data from both the magnetometer in Tromsø and the magnetometer in Reykjavík (Leirvogi). These locations are at latitudes from 69 to 64 degrees north – the Arctic Circle is at 66 degrees north – and allow us to measure aurora activity over a wide area. With these two measurements, it is possible to identify the intensity and also the approximate location of the lights.
Tromsø (69° N): When the Tromsø magnetometer shows increased activity, increased aurora activity can be expected towards the northern (NNE to NNW) horizon. However, weather and atmospheric conditions can affect visibility.
Reykjavík (64° N): Increased readings here indicate northern lights near Iceland, often visible towards the Big Dipper (Ursa Major) (Kp2 to Kp3-4) or directly overhead or towards the southern horizon (Kp4 or higher), when viewed from Reykjavík. The further North you are in Iceland, the better the chances of seeing strong northern lights even with low Kp factors. Staying in the South, you need at least Kp2.
Inactivity: Auroras typically become visible when magnetometer readings approach or exceed ±50nT.
Charging Phase: When magnetometers rise above 50nT, it suggests that geomagnetic activity is increasing, and the field is "charging".
Substorm Activity (Active or Very Active): These are usually indicated by sharp drops in magnetometer readings, measuring a decline of 100nT from the starting position or falling below -100nT. Very active substorms will drop well below -250nT and lower.
Weakening Phase: After a substorm, if readings rise from below a negative value, it indicates that the energy is dissipating.
Positive readings above 50nT that are rising generally indicate building geomagnetic activity.
Visibility of the aurora by eye starts from ±50nT, depending on atmospheric conditions, light pollution and other factors.
Readings around or above 100nT suggest auroras might be visible whilst continuing to build energy.
Significant drops below -100nT or sudden changes in readings often signal substorm activity, meaning strong aurora displays.
By monitoring these readings, you can better predict and observe the mesmerizing auroras, whether you're a novice or a seasoned chaser. Always consider local weather conditions and light pollution for the best viewing experience.
Reykjavík 🌩 4.2°C 15:37 11:03 Sun ° : 1.59°
|
Kp
3-4
|
The Aurora will remain at the same reach. The Kp3-4 will cover all of Iceland from 20:30. Viewed from Reykjavík, when active, the Aurora will be positioned between the NNW horizon and above the city. In addition it might cover the Faroe Islands and northern-mid Scandinavia. During active periods, visibility is likely to extend to the northern UK and Ireland, southern Scandinavia. |
|
Speed |
Density |
IMF Bt |
 IMF Bz |
| 385.5km/s | 6.5p/cm3 | 7.23nT | -4.29nT |
|
55 /120
|
| Moderate |
The Solar Wind quality remains steady over the next 66 minutes.
Once conditions reach earth, good activity levels are expected: The Aurora Oval should remain stable, or even increase, and build up activity over time. Monitor conditions once these have arrived on earth.
The Bz index is forecasted to be negative (southward) for 100% of the next 66 minutes, averaging -4.08 nT with a potential low of -6.07 nT. These conditions favor aurora visibility.
| TODAY | |||||
| Time UTC | Actual Kp | Cond. met? | Dec 10 | Dec 11 | Dec 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00-03:00 |
Kp
3
|
Exceeded |
Kp
2
|
Kp
1
|
Kp
3-4
|
| 03:00-06:00 |
Kp
3-4
|
Exceeded |
Kp
2
|
Kp
2
|
Kp
2
|
| 06:00-09:00 |
Kp
4-5
|
Exceeded |
Kp
3
|
Kp
2-3
|
Kp
2
|
| 09:00-12:00 |
Kp
4
|
Exceeded |
Kp
2
|
Kp
2-3
|
Kp
3
|
| 12:00-15:00 |
Kp
3-4
|
Exceeded |
Kp
2
|
Kp
2-3
|
Kp
2-3
|
| 15:00-18:00 |
Kp
N/A
|
N/A |
Kp
2
|
Kp
2-3
|
Kp
3
|
| 18:00-21:00 |
Kp
N/A
|
N/A |
Kp
3
|
Kp
2-3
|
Kp
3-4
|
| 21:00-00:00 |
Kp
N/A
|
N/A |
Kp
1-2
|
Kp
2-3
|
Kp
3-4
|
| Source: SWPC NOAA 3-day Forecast Updated: 2025-12-10 00:30:00 GMT |
|||||
| Details (English only): "No Kp4–5 or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast." | |||||
Emerald Skies ehf. Kennitala: 710124-0860 |
v5.3 |
Emerald Skies would like to thank Tromsø Geophysical Observatory at UiT the Arctic University of Norway for providing data from the Tromsø Magnetic Observatory. |
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